Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Traders currently price "Joshua Van" at 49% for "Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 2.0 points. Full distribution: Joshua Van 49%, Alexandre Pantoja 47%, Manel Kape 3%, Asu Almabayev 1%. The market has traded $1.2M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Joshua Van holds the UFC flyweight title after capturing it via first-round injury stoppage against Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 323, then defending successfully against Tatsuro Taira. Pantoja, fully recovered from the elbow issue, is set for an immediate rematch on September 19 at UFC 331, creating a high-stakes clash that explains the near-even implied probabilities between the two. Pantoja's experience as a multi-time titleholder and strong recent form fuel his market position, while Van's youth, activity level, and proven finishing ability keep traders split. Lower-ranked contenders such as Manel Kape sit well behind due to the lack of imminent title opportunities, leaving the division's outcome dependent on how the rematch and any subsequent defenses unfold through the remainder of 2026.

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