Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

Traders currently price "Islam Makhachev" at 75% for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. Full distribution: Islam Makhachev 75%, Ian Machado Garry 22%, Carlos Prates 3%, Michael Morales 1%. The market has traded $624K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Islam Makhachev sits atop trader consensus at 75% implied probability as the reigning UFC welterweight champion who captured the belt via unanimous decision over Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322 in November 2025. His dominant wrestling and sambo base, combined with an upcoming title defense against top contender Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330 on August 15, 2026, reinforces his position heading into the remainder of the year. Garry holds the next-highest share at 22.4% as the undefeated Irish prospect with strong striking volume and recent momentum in the division. Lower-probability names such as Carlos Prates and Michael Morales reflect their status as rising but unproven contenders further down the rankings, while established veterans like Kamaru Usman and Belal Muhammad carry minimal shares amid questions over age and recent form. The short timeline to year-end limits major title changes absent an upset or injury.

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