Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
- Karoline Leavitt
- 100%
- +80.0
- Tulsi Gabbard
- 100%
- +40.5
- Pam Bondi
- 100%
- −1.5
- Dan Bongino
- 100%
- +16.0
- Lori Chavez-DeRemer
- 100%
- +17.0
- David Sacks
- 32%
- −2.6
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- 31%
- +3.5
- Kash Patel
- 31%
- +4.0
- Howard Lutnick
- 30%
- −2.0
- Dan Scavino
- 29%
- +0.9
- Pete Hegseth
- 27%
- +3.0
- Tom Homan
- 27%
- —
- Susie Wiles
- 27%
- +3.0
- Lee Zeldin
- 26%
- +3.5
- Kristi Noem
- 24%
- +3.0
- Markwayne Mullin
- 17%
- −9.0
- John Ratcliffe
- 15%
- +1.5
- Stephen Miller
- 11%
- —
- Russell Vought
- 10%
- −39.5
- Scott Bessent
- 9%
- −3.0
- Marco Rubio
- 7%
- —
Traders currently price "Karoline Leavitt" at 100% for "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 80.0 points. Full distribution: Karoline Leavitt 100%, Tulsi Gabbard 100%, Pam Bondi 100%, Dan Bongino 100%. The market has traded $1.4M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. High cabinet and senior official turnover has historically characterized U.S. presidential administrations, driven by policy disagreements, confirmation pressures, legislative votes, and personal or strategic exits. As of mid-2026 in the current term, several appointees continue to navigate Senate oversight, budget negotiations, and midterm dynamics that often accelerate departures before the 2027 cycle. Public statements on intentions, agency leadership changes, and any scheduled confirmation hearings or executive actions remain key variables. Market pricing reflects this baseline volatility alongside the specific resolution criteria for each individual.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.