Who will Trump endorse?

Traders currently price "Ken Paxton - TX-Sen" at 100% for "Who will Trump endorse?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 70.2 points. Full distribution: Ken Paxton - TX-Sen 100%, Andy Barr - KY-Sen 100%, Steve Hilton - CA-Gov 100%, Susan Collins - ME-Sen 100%. The market has traded $242K in total volume and resolves Nov 4, 2026. Trump's endorsement decisions in the 2026 cycle have centered on early announcements that consolidate support for aligned candidates in Republican primaries, with over 300 endorsements issued so far and a 97% primary win rate. Recent patterns show preference for incumbents in safer seats and strategic interventions in high-profile contests, such as backing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton against Sen. John Cornyn ahead of the May runoff, which shifted polling and market probabilities sharply. Traders monitor Truth Social statements, administration coordination, and primary polling trends as signals, while noting the president's influence on turnout among base voters. Upcoming general election dynamics and any remaining primaries could prompt additional endorsements before November.

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