Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Traders currently price "Ryan Salame" at 46% for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 2.0 points. Full distribution: Ryan Salame 46%, Matt Gaetz 21%, Daniel Penny 18%, Donald Brodie 18%. The market has traded $418K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Trump has exercised the pardon power extensively since January 2025, beginning with a blanket grant covering more than 1,500 January 6 Capitol defendants on inauguration day and commutations for several Proud Boys and Oath Keepers leaders. Subsequent actions through mid-2026 include pardons for dozens of individuals tied to 2020 election challenges, such as 77 named fake electors in November 2025, along with batches of white-collar offenders and political allies like former Representative Stephen E. Buyer. Official Department of Justice records show over 1,700 total grants by June 2026, reflecting a pattern favoring cases viewed by the administration as politically motivated prosecutions. With the 2027 cutoff approaching, trader focus centers on remaining high-profile applicants and any further ally or election-related clemency before year-end, as the president retains broad constitutional authority with limited procedural constraints.

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