Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Traders currently price "No" at 72% for "Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. The market has traded $254K in total volume and resolves Sep 6, 2026. Recent polls from INSA, Infratest dimap, and pollytix place the AfD at 41-43% in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of the September 6, 2026 Landtag election, ahead of the CDU at 22-24% and the Left Party at 13%, with smaller parties clustered near the 5% threshold. These figures project roughly 38-41 seats out of 83, falling short of the 42 required for an absolute majority despite the party's strong regional position and doubled support since 2021. Seat allocation mechanics, including threshold effects that could modestly boost the AfD if minor parties are excluded, keep an outright majority unlikely in current trader assessments. No major polling shifts or official developments have altered this outlook in recent weeks.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.