Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 92% for "Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?". The market has traded $160K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. **No other OPEC member has signaled an imminent departure since the UAE's exit effective May 1, 2026.** The UAE withdrew after nearly 60 years, citing the need for greater production flexibility amid the Iran-related conflict, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and its long-term strategy to maximize output before shifting energy dynamics. This followed years of internal quota tensions but occurred without triggering a broader wave of exits. Remaining members have maintained coordinated OPEC+ output reviews, including a virtual meeting in early August 2026 focused on market conditions. Historical precedent shows isolated departures (Qatar 2019, Angola 2024) rarely cascade immediately, and current producer alignments plus shared geopolitical pressures continue to support cohesion through year-end. No official statements, quota disputes, or diplomatic moves point to additional exits in the remaining months of 2026.

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