Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 82% for "Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. The market has traded $340K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. NOAA’s August update maintains a 75% probability of below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3–5) for the full season amid a developing El Niño that suppresses formation through increased wind shear and drier air. Only two tropical storms have formed so far, well below the 1991–2020 average, with Accumulated Cyclone Energy also tracking far below median. Colorado State University similarly projects below-average U.S. major-hurricane landfall odds. These conditions, combined with the season’s remaining window before November 30, underpin the market’s 81.5% implied probability that no Category 4 system reaches the U.S. coast before 2027.

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