Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 86% for "Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. The market has traded $139K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. NOAA's below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook, citing El Niño influences and reduced activity, underpins the strong trader consensus against a Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. Forecasts project just 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and only 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3+), well below averages, with early season data showing just three weak named storms and zero hurricanes as of mid-August. Category 5 landfalls remain exceptionally rare historically, occurring only a handful of times in the U.S. record, and current steering patterns plus suppressed conditions limit rapid intensification risks through the peak months. New model runs and National Hurricane Center updates in coming weeks will refine these probabilities.

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