Will ByteDance's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Traders currently price "↓$550B" at 100% for "Will ByteDance's valuation hit __ by December 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 16.0 points. Full distribution: ↓$550B 100%, ↑$650B 27%, ↑$700B 27%, ↓$500B 26%. The market has traded $67K in total volume and resolves Jan 1, 2027. ByteDance's private valuation has climbed sharply through secondary-market activity, rising from $330 billion in an August 2025 employee tender to $550 billion in a February 2026 General Atlantic stake sale and above $600 billion in April proposals, with thinner gray-market quotes approaching $900 billion by June. The January 2026 U.S. approval of TikTok's majority-U.S. joint-venture restructuring removed a key regulatory overhang, while sustained ad revenue and TikTok Shop growth—bolstered by roughly $50 billion in 2025 profits—have supported the gains. Founder statements indicate an IPO remains off the table in favor of ongoing buybacks and private liquidity programs, even as the company commits over $70 billion to 2026 AI and data-center spending. Fresh secondary trades or shifts in tech risk appetite ahead of year-end could influence pricing benchmarks.

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