Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 92% for "Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?". The market has traded $15K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. **Traders have priced "No" at 91.7% because George R.R. Martin has shown no meaningful progress toward announcing *The Winds of Winter* despite 15 years of work.** As of early 2026, he reported roughly 1,100 manuscript pages—the same figure cited for years—while his August 3 Not a Blog post offered only a personal reflection on loss, depression, and turning 77, with zero mention of the book. A July 2026 *A Song of Ice and Fire* calendar release and April publisher denial of false 2026 release rumors further signal stalled momentum. His upcoming LACon appearance (August 27–31) is unlikely to yield an announcement absent a completed manuscript, consistent with historical patterns of missed deadlines and quiet periods. An unexpected finish or surprise reveal before December 31 remains possible but would require a dramatic reversal of the current trajectory.

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