María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 25% for "María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 25%, September 30 13%, August 31 7%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $6.4M in total volume and resolves Jan 31, 2026. María Corina Machado remains in exile in Panama after multiple blocked attempts to return to Venezuela in 2026, including efforts around late June earthquakes that killed thousands, when airlines refused boarding and authorities closed airspace. Her return has been discouraged by U.S. officials favoring alternative opposition figures such as Dinorah Figuera for transition talks and electoral council renewal following Nicolás Maduro’s January capture. Machado has repeatedly stated her intent to re-enter before year-end to aid recovery, coordinate relief, and position for a future presidential run, yet procedural and diplomatic barriers tied to stability concerns continue to shape the timeline. Upcoming events include further opposition-Chavista negotiations and any shifts in U.S. policy or Venezuelan government permissions that could enable or delay entry.

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