Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Traders currently price "No" at 77% for "Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. The market has traded $1.1M in total volume and resolves Jan 3, 2027. Mitch McConnell has repeatedly stated his intention to complete his Senate term, which ends in January 2027, following his February 2025 announcement that he would not seek reelection. Recent health setbacks, including a June 2026 fall leading to extended hospitalization and rehabilitation, prompted questions about his capacity and calls from some Kentucky Democrats for resignation if he cannot participate fully. However, by early August 2026 he was discharged from rehab, recovering at home while remaining engaged in Senate matters, with no official signals of early departure. Traders appear to weigh his explicit commitment to serve out the term and ongoing recovery trajectory more heavily than speculation, viewing an abrupt resignation as unlikely absent a sharp deterioration in his condition before the scheduled end date.

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