Will Neuralink’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Traders currently price "↑$45B" at 100% for "Will Neuralink’s valuation hit __ by December 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 4.0 points. Full distribution: ↑$45B 100%, ↑$42.5B 100%, ↑$40B 100%, ↑$50B 64%. The market has traded $80K in total volume and resolves Jan 1, 2027. Neuralink's most recent primary funding round, a $650 million Series E closed in mid-2025, established an official post-money valuation near $9.6 billion, more than doubling the prior mark. Secondary-market trading has since implied valuations ranging from roughly $10 billion to unconfirmed reports near $40 billion as of early 2026, reflecting strong investor appetite for its brain-computer interface technology. Key drivers include expanding human trials across multiple countries, multiple FDA Breakthrough Device designations for speech and vision restoration, and Elon Musk’s January 2026 announcement of a shift to high-volume automated manufacturing and implantation in 2026. Traders are monitoring potential follow-on financing, additional patient data releases, and regulatory progress through year-end, all of which could materially shift implied probabilities around any specific valuation threshold by December 31.

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