Will Perplexity's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Traders currently price "↓$17.5B" at 100% for "Will Perplexity's valuation hit __ by December 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 48.4 points. Full distribution: ↓$17.5B 100%, ↑$20B 54%, ↑$22.5B 38%, ↓$15B 32%. The market has traded $58K in total volume and resolves Jan 1, 2027. Perplexity AI's private valuation stabilized near $20 billion following its September 2025 Series E-6 round, which raised roughly $200–525 million, with secondary platforms such as Forge and Hiive showing implied values of $17–19.2 billion as of mid-August 2026 amid modest share discounts. Annualized recurring revenue reached an estimated $500 million by April 2026, reflecting 335% year-over-year growth fueled by subscription tiers, usage-based pricing, and the Computer AI agent launch. This revenue trajectory, alongside 45 million active users and hundreds of millions of monthly queries, supports the current market-implied odds while highlighting sensitivity to any new primary financing, regulatory shifts in AI search, or broader tech risk appetite that could alter secondary liquidity before year-end.

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