Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

Traders currently price "June 30, 2027" at 38% for "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 4.5 points. Full distribution: June 30, 2027 38%, December 31 6%, September 30 2%, July 15 0%. The market has traded $3.4M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, age 76, has publicly stated he intends to remain on the bench for at least another term following an erroneous June 2026 NPR report claiming his retirement, which the outlet later retracted. Alito's August 2026 comments to the Wall Street Journal directly countered speculation that he might step down to allow a replacement nomination under the current Republican Senate majority. Traders assess retirement timing against historical patterns where justices align departures with favorable presidential and Senate control to secure ideologically aligned successors. The court's next term begins in October 2026 and runs through June or July 2027, with no scheduled confirmation hearings or other immediate catalysts noted. Any shift would likely require new health developments, personal statements, or changes in Senate composition ahead of potential market resolution dates.

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