Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
- 30+
- 23%
- −1.5
- 40+
- 11%
- −5.5
- 50+
- 8%
- −2.5
- 60+
- 5%
- −1.0
- 80+
- 3%
- —
- 100+
- 1%
- —
Traders currently price "30+" at 23% for "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.5 points. Full distribution: 30+ 23%, 40+ 11%, 50+ 8%, 60+ 5%. The market has traded $97K in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Ongoing US-Iran tensions and renewed hostilities have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic at sharply reduced levels, with daily transits recently ranging from six to 11 vessels versus the pre-conflict average of roughly 100. A June 17 memorandum of understanding briefly lifted volumes before attacks resumed, prompting the US to reimpose its naval blockade and raising war-risk insurance costs that deter commercial operators. These dynamics have supported elevated Brent crude prices above $90 per barrel amid supply concerns tied to the waterway's role in roughly one-fifth of global oil flows. Diplomatic talks between Iran and Oman continue, but recent incidents and enforcement actions limit prospects for a rapid normalization of traffic before the August 31 resolution date. Traders monitor any de-escalation signals or policy shifts that could enable a single day of higher throughput.
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