Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Traders currently price "Yes" at 96% for "Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?". The market has traded $333K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Federal law sets U.S. midterm elections for the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November of even-numbered years, with the Constitution assigning states primary responsibility for timing and administration while limiting federal override powers. As of August 2026, primaries are underway across multiple states with no procedural halts reported, reinforcing trader consensus that the November 3 date will hold. High implied probability for “Yes” reflects this statutory rigidity, historical continuity through wars and emergencies, and absence of executive authority to alter the calendar unilaterally. Only an act of Congress could shift the schedule, an outcome viewed as improbable absent an extraordinary, coordinated national crisis.

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