Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 11% for "Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?". Full distribution: December 31, 2026 11%, October 31 0%, December 31 0%, March 31, 2026 0%. The market has traded $561K in total volume and resolves Mar 31, 2026. Republican control of the Senate has enabled targeted procedural changes, including three instances in 2025 where Majority Leader John Thune's majority invoked precedents to ease consideration of nominations and budget measures. Trump has repeatedly urged elimination of the 60-vote legislative filibuster threshold via the nuclear option to advance priorities such as voter legislation, though many Republican senators have resisted a full rule rewrite that would apply beyond nominations. Discussions resurfaced in March 2026 around a voter-restriction bill, highlighting partisan pressure versus institutional caution. Midterm dynamics and any remaining appropriations deadlines before the 118th Congress ends could test whether a simple-majority vote to reinterpret cloture rules gains internal support.

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