Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 5% for "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?". Full distribution: December 31 5%, September 30 2%, April 30 0%, June 30 0%. The market has traded $64.6M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent declassifications under the PURSUE initiative, launched after President Trump's February 2026 directive, have produced five tranches of UAP records through early August 2026 without any official determination of extraterrestrial origin. Pentagon and ODNI statements continue to describe the materials as unresolved cases lacking physical evidence or conclusive proof of non-human technology, consistent with prior AARO assessments and congressional reviews. Trader sentiment remains tempered by the absence of new whistleblower testimony, legislative mandates for affirmative confirmation, or scheduled high-level briefings that would meet resolution criteria for a definitive executive or agency statement. Ongoing rolling releases and any future AARO or ODNI updates within the market window represent the primary near-term catalysts that could alter implied probabilities.

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