Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 89% for "Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?". The market has traded $270K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. The U.S. conducted a limited special operations raid and airstrikes in Venezuela on January 3, 2026 (Operation Absolute Resolve), resulting in the capture of Nicolás Maduro, but avoided a broader ground invasion or occupation of territory. Subsequent policy has emphasized economic pressure, sanctions, counternarcotics strikes on vessels, naval deployments in the Caribbean, and diplomatic leverage against Cuba and other nations rather than additional military incursions. By mid-August 2026, no comparable operations have occurred elsewhere in the region despite ongoing tensions over migration, drugs, and external influence, with military assets scaled back from early-year peaks. Traders assign an 88.5% probability to "No" on the basis of this pattern of targeted actions and coercive diplomacy falling short of full-scale invasion criteria.

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