Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?

Traders currently price "Yes" at 100% for "Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. The market has traded $197K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. The Workers' Party formally nominated incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its 2026 presidential candidate during its national convention in early August, confirming his eligibility for a fourth term and aligning with the party's long-standing internal consensus on his leadership. This development, occurring well ahead of the August 15 candidacy registration deadline, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. With the nomination already secured through official party processes, only narrow procedural disputes, last-minute health-related withdrawals, or unforeseen legal challenges before the cutoff could realistically alter the outcome, though no such developments have emerged in recent reporting.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.