Will Tim Walz resign by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 4% for "Will Tim Walz resign by...?". Full distribution: December 31 4%, July 31 0%, January 31 0%, June 30 0%. The market has traded $2.6M in total volume and resolves Jun 30, 2026. Tim Walz, the Democratic governor of Minnesota, announced in January 2026 that he would not seek a third term amid ongoing investigations into fraud in state social service programs during his administration. He explicitly rejected Republican calls to resign and stated his intention to serve out the remainder of his term, which concludes in January 2027. No major new developments or intensified pressure have emerged since that announcement. Walz has continued official duties, including appointments and policy initiatives, through mid-2026. The November 2026 gubernatorial election and the lack of reported health, legal, or political triggers that would force an early exit remain key variables. Similar prediction markets currently price the probability of departure before late 2026 or early 2027 in the low single digits, reflecting trader assessment of his repeated commitments and the absence of fresh catalysts.

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