Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 98% for "Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?". The market has traded $1.0M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both the House and Senate, making passage of articles of impeachment against President Trump before the end of 2026 highly unlikely under existing congressional control. The 2026 midterm elections will not alter this timeline, as any new Congress would not convene until January 2027. Impeachment requires a House majority vote on articles, while removal demands a two-thirds Senate supermajority—thresholds that lack the necessary cross-party support based on current alignments. Trader consensus at 98% probability for no impeachment reflects these structural barriers and historical patterns of partisan impeachment efforts. Late-session developments, such as unexpected bipartisan consensus on specific charges or major unforeseen events, remain the primary variables that could shift dynamics before year-end.

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