Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 94% for "Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?". The market has traded $745K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. The high probability against a Trump pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell by the end of 2026 reflects sustained bipartisan resistance and limited signals of executive action. Maxwell, convicted in 2021 on sex-trafficking charges tied to Jeffrey Epstein and serving a 20-year sentence after exhausting appeals, has drawn explicit opposition from the Senate, which passed a unanimous non-binding resolution in July 2026 urging against any clemency. Trump has repeatedly stated he has not thought seriously about the matter, received no formal approach, and would consult the Department of Justice, while Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has indicated no recommendation for relief. These factors, combined with the political risks of appearing to favor a high-profile convicted offender, have anchored trader consensus on the low likelihood of issuance within the remaining resolution window.

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