Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 96% for "Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?". The market has traded $527K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Traders assign a 96.3% probability that Donald Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of presidential resignations and the absence of any confirmed developments indicating an imminent departure. No active impeachment proceedings, health crises, or official statements signal an early exit during this portion of his term. Trump maintains an active schedule of public appearances, policy implementation, and political engagement, consistent with completing a full four-year mandate. While resignation remains possible in theory, realistic catalysts such as sudden medical incapacity, unforeseen legal pressures, or internal party dynamics would need to emerge rapidly to shift the current consensus reflected in market pricing.

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