Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

Traders currently price "1m" at 100% for "Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 3.2 points. Full distribution: 1m 100%, 1.1m 100%, 1.2m 55%, 1.3m 19%. The market has traded $182K in total volume and resolves Feb 28, 2027. Recent U.S. sanctions relief tied to Venezuela's 2026 political transition has enabled expanded licenses for operators like Chevron, supporting a gradual recovery in crude output to approximately 1.07–1.19 million barrels per day through mid-year. This marks an improvement from 2025 averages near 1.0 million bpd but remains well below historical peaks above 3 million bpd, constrained by aging infrastructure, diluent shortages, and maintenance backlogs. PDVSA has targeted 1.37 million bpd by year-end, with market-implied odds reflecting incremental gains from foreign investment inflows estimated at $1.4 billion rather than rapid scaling. Key near-term catalysts include OPEC secondary-source data releases, further regulatory clarity on joint ventures, and sustained export volumes to the U.S. and India.

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