Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory (0.2% Brackets)

Traders currently price "Crowley 0.4–0.6%" at 98% for "Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory (0.2% Brackets)". Full distribution: Crowley 0.4–0.6% 98%, Other 50%, Crowley 0.2–0.4% 2%, Crowley <0.2% 1%. The market has traded $213K in total volume and resolves Aug 12, 2026. David Crowley secured the Wisconsin Democratic nomination for governor on August 11, 2026, defeating Francesca Hong by a narrow statewide margin of roughly 0.48 percentage points in a low-turnout primary featuring multiple candidates. Trader consensus on the 0.4–0.6% bracket reflects verified vote totals showing Crowley at 39.8% and Hong at 39.4%, driven by Crowley's late re-entry, strong Milwaukee-area consolidation, fundraising edge in the final weeks, and endorsement from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers that emphasized general-election viability against Republican nominee Tom Tiffany. Late undecided-voter shifts and weaker-than-expected progressive turnout also contributed. The outcome remains subject to final canvassing certification or any narrow procedural disputes, though Hong's concession has reduced the likelihood of a recount given the margin exceeded the 0.25% threshold for a free challenge.

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