Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory

Traders currently price "Crowley wins" at 99% for "Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory". Full distribution: Crowley wins 99%, Other 50%, Hong 25–30% 1%, Hong 30%+ 0%. The market has traded $209K in total volume and resolves Aug 11, 2026. David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary through a late surge of support from undecided voters, bolstered by endorsements from incumbent Governor Tony Evers and a shift toward his moderate profile after other candidates withdrew. Withdrawals by Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez amid campaign finance issues, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, and others consolidated the field around Crowley as a stronger alternative to progressive state Rep. Francesca Hong, whose early polling lead eroded in the final weeks. The primary's narrow result reflects a closely divided party but leaves little room for reversal absent official recount disputes or certification challenges. Trader consensus prices Crowley’s victory near certainty, consistent with reported vote tallies, while assigning minimal probability to any reversal scenarios.

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