Wisconsin Governor Election Winner

Traders currently price "David Crowley (D)" at 78% for "Wisconsin Governor Election Winner". The market has traded $250K in total volume and resolves Nov 3, 2026. David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination in an upset victory over progressive state Rep. Francesca Hong in the August 11, 2026, Wisconsin primary, winning 39.8% to 39.3% after trailing significantly in earlier polls. This outcome shifted forecasters including Cook and Sabato from toss-up to Leans Democratic for the November 3 general election against Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, who won his primary with strong Trump endorsement. Traders appear to view Crowley's moderate profile and Milwaukee County executive experience as better positioned for the swing state's independent voters in an open-seat race, though Tiffany has launched seven-figure ads attacking Crowley's record and the Democratic Governors Association has countered. General election polling shows Crowley holding a modest edge in a contest rated competitive by multiple analysts.

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