TECH / AILIVE

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

$1.5–$1.75T18%

// MARKET-IMPLIED PROBABILITIES

$1.5–$1.75T: 18%; —
$1.75–$2.0T: 17%; +4.0
$1.25–$1.5T: 16%; −4.0
$2.25–$2.5T: 14%; +0.5
$2.0–$2.25T: 13%; +1.5
$2.5–$2.75T: 8%; —
$3.0T+: 8%; +4.2
<$1.25T: 6%; −4.5
$2.75–$3.0T: 2%; +1.1
No IPO by December 31, 2027: 1%; —

VOLUME

$272K

24H VOLUME

$37K

LIQUIDITY

$147K

RESOLVES

Dec 31, 2027

Traders currently price "$1.5–$1.75T" at 18% for "Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap". Full distribution: $1.5–$1.75T 18%, $1.75–$2.0T 17%, $1.25–$1.5T 16%, $2.25–$2.5T 14%. The market has traded $272K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2027. Recent SEC filing momentum and explosive revenue growth to a roughly $47 billion annualized run rate underpin the tightly bunched Polymarket odds around the $1.5–2.0 trillion range for Anthropic’s first-day closing market cap. Traders weigh the $965 billion May 2026 post-money valuation and secondary-market indications near $1.05–1.15 trillion against potential AI-sector multiples that could deliver a 20–50 percent IPO premium, while monitoring competitive dynamics with OpenAI and hyperscaler compute commitments. Key swing factors include fall 2026 listing conditions, quarterly margin expansion, and broader equity sentiment, with outcomes below $1.25 trillion or above $2.5 trillion priced as lower-probability tails reflecting uncertainty over sustained growth versus valuation compression risks.

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Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.