Fed Decision in December?

Traders currently price "No change" at 69% for "Fed Decision in December?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 10.0 points. Full distribution: No change 69%, 25 bps increase 28%, 25 bps decrease 4%, 50+ bps increase 1%. The market has traded $129K in total volume and resolves Dec 9, 2026. Recent CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July, with core at 2.5%, alongside a July jobs report featuring a 4.1% unemployment rate and flat payrolls, has anchored trader expectations for the December FOMC meeting. The federal funds rate currently sits at 3.50–3.75%, and persistent above-target price pressures—exacerbated by energy costs—have shifted market-implied odds toward no change or a 25 basis point hike. Fed projections and analyst forecasts reflect similar caution, with limited scope for easing given the inflation trajectory versus labor market cooling. Upcoming September data releases and the September FOMC decision remain key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.

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