FED / RATESLIVE

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Pause–Pause–Pause56%▲ 8.0pt 24h

// MARKET-IMPLIED PROBABILITIES

Pause–Pause–Pause: 56%; +8.0
Other: 44%; −2.0
Pause–Pause–Cut: 2%; −0.9
Pause–Cut–Pause: 1%; —
Pause–Cut–Cut: 0%; —
Cut–Pause–Pause: 0%; —
Cut–Pause–Cut: 0%; —
Cut–Cut–Pause: 0%; —
Cut–Cut–Cut: 0%; —

VOLUME

$693K

24H VOLUME

$19K

LIQUIDITY

$127K

RESOLVES

Oct 28, 2026

Traders currently price "Pause–Pause–Pause" at 56% for "Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 8.0 points. Full distribution: Pause–Pause–Pause 56%, Other 44%, Pause–Pause–Cut 2%, Pause–Cut–Pause 1%. The market has traded $693K in total volume and resolves Oct 28, 2026. Traders price a 55.5% implied probability on the Federal Reserve holding the policy rate steady through the July, September, and October 2026 meetings, driven by resilient labor-market data and inflation that has remained above the 2% target. Recent nonfarm payrolls and wage readings have supported the view that the economy can absorb current rates without immediate easing, aligning with FOMC communications stressing data dependence and caution against premature cuts. Market-implied odds for any sequence involving cuts stay below 2%, as participants await further confirmation on the inflation trajectory. The September CPI release and employment report stand as the next major catalysts that could alter these odds if they show material cooling or renewed price pressures.

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// MORE FED / RATES MARKETS

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?86%Fed Decision in September?71%Fed rate hike in 2026?53%What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?40%

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