FED / RATESLIVE

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Pause–Pause–Pause68%▲ 8.0pt 24h

// MARKET-IMPLIED PROBABILITIES

Pause–Pause–Pause: 68%; +8.0
Other: 35%; −5.5
Pause–Pause–Cut: 1%; −0.5
Cut–Pause–Pause: 0%; −0.8
Cut–Pause–Cut: 0%; —
Cut–Cut–Pause: 0%; —
Cut–Cut–Cut: 0%; −0.5
Pause–Cut–Pause: 0%; —
Pause–Cut–Cut: 0%; —

VOLUME

$730K

24H VOLUME

$18K

LIQUIDITY

$53K

RESOLVES

Sep 16, 2026

Traders currently price "Pause–Pause–Pause" at 68% for "Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 8.0 points. Full distribution: Pause–Pause–Pause 68%, Other 35%, Pause–Pause–Cut 1%, Cut–Pause–Pause 0%. The market has traded $730K in total volume and resolves Sep 16, 2026. Recent inflation moderation and the Federal Reserve's July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June-September meetings. The 9-3 vote, with three members favoring a 25-basis-point hike, highlighted internal divisions yet affirmed the majority's preference for additional data amid elevated CPI readings near 3.5% year-over-year and energy-driven volatility from Middle East developments. Solid labor market conditions and resilient growth have tempered cut expectations, leaving only an 0.8% chance for Pause–Pause–Cut. Traders now focus on the August CPI release and September FOMC meeting as key catalysts that could shift the rate path.

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// MORE FED / RATES MARKETS

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?86%Fed Decision in September?67%Fed rate hike in 2026?55%What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?42%

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