Fed rate cut by...?

Traders currently price "December Meeting" at 14% for "Fed rate cut by...?". Full distribution: December Meeting 14%, October Meeting 6%, September Meeting 2%, January Meeting 0%. The market has traded $3.1M in total volume and resolves Jun 17, 2026. Recent U.S. CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, down only modestly from 3.5% in June, combined with the July FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75%, have anchored trader expectations for limited or no near-term easing. Firm labor market conditions and revised projections from major banks, including potential 25-basis-point hikes by year-end, have shifted implied probabilities away from the multiple cuts once anticipated for 2026. With the next FOMC meeting and updated dot plot scheduled for September 15–16 and August CPI due September 11, markets are closely watching incoming data for signs of reacceleration or moderation that could alter the policy path. Aggregated trader positions on platforms like Polymarket reflect this data-driven caution, pricing probabilities consistent with a prolonged pause amid elevated inflation readings.

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