Gemini 4.0 released by...?

Traders currently price "September 30" at 23% for "Gemini 4.0 released by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 2.5 points. Full distribution: September 30 23%, August 31 2%, July 31 0%, June 30 0%. The market has traded $192K in total volume and resolves Jul 31, 2026. Google confirmed on July 21, 2026, that pre-training for its next flagship large language model, Gemini 4, has begun as the company's most ambitious training run to date. This followed incremental July releases of efficiency-focused variants like Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite optimized for agentic workflows and lower latency. Traders are weighing typical 3-5 month pre-training cycles against post-training safety evaluations, scaling infrastructure needs, and integration timelines that could push general availability into late 2026 or early 2027. Competitive pressure from rival frontier models at other labs, recent Google leadership shifts, and the absence of an official release window or benchmarks keep near-term resolution uncertain ahead of potential announcements at developer events or earnings updates.

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