GPT-6 released by…?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 84% for "GPT-6 released by…?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: December 31, 2026 84%, September 30, 2026 52%, August 31, 2026 14%, August 21, 2026 2%. The market has traded $1.3M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2025. OpenAI’s recent cadence of GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 Sol point releases, following the April 2026 shipping of the model once expected as GPT-6, has pushed true generational advancement later than earlier trader expectations. Safety evaluations, infrastructure scaling, and internal naming shifts, including the August 2026 tentative “Astra” family for long-running tasks, currently shape sentiment around extended timelines into late 2026 or 2027. Competitive pressure from other large language model labs and OpenAI’s emphasis on iterative reasoning improvements rather than immediate flagship launches add uncertainty. Traders watch for official model cards, pre-training completion signals, or major events such as developer conferences that could accelerate or further delay a GPT-6-class release.

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