Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Traders currently price "55%+" at 85% for "Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 11.5 points. Full distribution: 55%+ 85%, 60%+ 55%, 65%+ 15%, 70%+ 8%. The market has traded $58K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Anthropic’s rapid iteration on reasoning-focused Claude models drives current trader sentiment on the highest 2026 HLE score, with recent releases like Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 posting 54–65% accuracy on the 2,500-question graduate-level benchmark depending on tool use and extended thinking modes. These “thinking” configurations have delivered consistent 15–25 point gains over baseline runs, reflecting Anthropic’s emphasis on deeper chain-of-thought and agentic workflows amid competition from Gemini 3.1 Pro and GPT-5.4 variants. Progress from single-digit scores in early 2025 to the mid-50s today signals continued momentum, though model timelines, safety constraints, and benchmark saturation remain key variables heading into late-year updates.

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