How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Traders currently price "0 (0 bps)" at 47% for "How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 2.5 points. Full distribution: 0 (0 bps) 47%, 1 (25 bps) 35%, 2 (50 bps) 13%, 3 (75 bps) 3%. The market has traded $161K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent U.S. inflation data and the Federal Open Market Committee's June 2026 dot plot remain the dominant drivers of trader positioning in the "How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?" market. July CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month for a 3.4% annual rate, while core PCE held near 3.3%—well above the 2% target—yet softer-than-feared readings released August 12 eased near-term hike odds and reinforced the 46% probability of zero additional increases. The labor market also cooled, with July payrolls contracting 23,000 and unemployment at 4.1%, tempering growth concerns. Nine of 18 FOMC participants projected at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end in the latest median forecast, supporting the 34.5% share for a single move, while weaker incoming data and the current 3.50–3.75% funds rate range keep larger hikes below 15% combined.

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