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Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

December 3121%
// MARKET-IMPLIED PROBABILITIES
December 31
21%
May 30
0%
VOLUME
$434K
24H VOLUME
$6
LIQUIDITY
$5K
RESOLVES
Dec 31, 2026

Traders currently price "December 31" at 21% for "Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?". The market has traded $434K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Jerome Powell’s term as a Federal Reserve governor runs until January 31, 2028, following his May 2026 transition from chair to Kevin Warsh. Powell stated in April 2026 he intends to remain on the Board for a period to be determined, citing ongoing scrutiny of Fed headquarters renovations and efforts to safeguard institutional independence amid administration pressure. With removal possible only for cause under statute, trader sentiment on earlier exit dates reflects the balance between his stated plans, potential political or legal developments, and historical precedent for governors serving full terms. Key near-term catalysts include any congressional oversight actions or Fed Board announcements that could influence timing before the 2028 expiration.

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