Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Traders currently price "Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%" at 94% for "Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair". Full distribution: Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% 94%, Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5% 6%, Kevin Hassett & Rate ≤ 2.5% 0%, Kevin Hassett & Rate > 2.5% 0%. The market has traded $160K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Kevin Warsh’s appointment as Fed Chair in May 2026 and his repeated emphasis on restoring price stability have anchored trader consensus that benchmark rates will stay above 2.5 percent during his tenure. Recent FOMC meetings have held the federal funds rate near 3.6 percent, aligning with Warsh’s stated intolerance for persistently elevated inflation and his preference for tighter policy tools over forward guidance or balance-sheet expansion. This pricing reflects the market’s assessment of his early actions and inflation-fighting rhetoric. A sharp, sustained drop in inflation readings or unexpected economic weakness that forces aggressive easing could still shift the outcome, though current conditions make such a move appear unlikely in the near term.

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