Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
- No release by August 31
- 68%
- +10.9
- August 14
- 6%
- −0.5
- August 20
- 5%
- +3.1
- August 31
- 5%
- −0.5
- August 26
- 4%
- —
- August 23
- 4%
- +4.3
- August 24
- 4%
- +0.5
- August 25
- 4%
- +0.8
- August 18
- 4%
- −0.5
- August 27
- 3%
- −0.9
- August 13
- 3%
- +1.1
- August 19
- 1%
- —
- August 17
- 1%
- −0.9
- August 28
- 1%
- —
- August 30
- 0%
- —
- August 21
- 0%
- —
- August 22
- 0%
- —
- August 16
- 0%
- —
- August 15
- 0%
- —
- August 29
- 0%
- —
- On or prior to August 1
- 0%
- +7.5
- August 2
- 0%
- −14.0
- August 3
- 0%
- −3.0
- August 4
- 0%
- −1.0
- August 5
- 0%
- —
- August 6
- 0%
- —
- August 7
- 0%
- —
- August 8
- 0%
- —
- August 9
- 0%
- —
- August 10
- 0%
- −6.3
- August 11
- 0%
- —
- August 12
- 0%
- −0.6
Traders currently price "No release by August 31" at 68% for "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 10.9 points. Full distribution: No release by August 31 68%, August 14 6%, August 20 5%, August 31 5%. The market has traded $248K in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Traders assign a 65% implied probability to no Gemini Pro model release by August 31 because Google has repeatedly delayed the flagship 3.5 Pro version—originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement—due to internal performance shortfalls. The July 21 rollout of lighter variants like Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite, without any Pro update or firm timeline, reinforced skepticism amid ongoing testing with partners. With training now underway on Gemini 4 and no credible August signals, the market views an imminent launch as unlikely despite the model’s agentic and multimodal focus. Resolution hinges on an official public availability or API endpoint before month-end.
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