OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 92% for "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?". The market has traded $95K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent developments show slowed AI progress relative to earlier optimistic forecasts, with ex-OpenAI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo revising autonomous coding timelines toward the early 2030s and superintelligence to around 2034. Sam Altman has highlighted AI agents joining the workforce and “AI research interns” in 2026, yet no verified leap to broad, human-level capabilities across domains has materialized. OpenAI’s partnership agreement with Microsoft requires independent panel verification before any AGI claim, adding procedural hurdles. These factors underpin traders’ 91.5% implied probability against an announcement before 2027. An unexpected model release demonstrating robust generalization beyond current large language models could still shift sentiment, though historical patterns and current benchmarks suggest such a breakthrough remains unlikely in the remaining months of 2026.

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