OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

Traders currently price "1.5T+" at 35% for "OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 2.3 points. Full distribution: 1.5T+ 35%, 1.25T–1.5T 23%, 1T–1.25T 21%, 750B–1T 11%. The market has traded $88K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2027. OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing and shifting IPO timeline—now leaning toward 2027 rather than late 2026—anchor the wide distribution of closing market-cap probabilities, with the $1.5 trillion-plus bucket holding the highest implied probability at 34.9 percent. Traders price in sustained revenue momentum, with annualized run rates recently exceeding $25 billion and enterprise contributing over 40 percent, against an $852 billion March 2026 private mark and ongoing GAAP losses near $14–33 billion. Competitive pressure from Anthropic, execution on model releases, and prevailing AI-sector multiples remain key swing factors that could push outcomes into the $1–1.5 trillion range or leave the company below $750 billion if growth moderates before listing.

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