OpenAI’s Astra released by…?

Traders currently price "October 31" at 87% for "OpenAI’s Astra released by…?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 4.5 points. Full distribution: October 31 87%, September 30 76%, September 15 40%, August 31 16%. The market has traded $158K in total volume and resolves Oct 31, 2026. OpenAI’s Astra, positioned as the company’s next major frontier large language model after GPT-5, gained visibility on August 1 when an internal version demonstrated advanced mathematical reasoning by solving ten long-standing open problems. Trader sentiment has since been shaped by the August 7 disclosure that preliminary evaluations cannot rule out “critical” autonomous cyber capabilities under OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, prompting expanded security testing, strengthened safeguards, and a pause on certain internal activities. This safety-driven slowdown introduces realistic delays beyond initial expectations while OpenAI continues work to make the model broadly available to defenders. Upcoming catalysts include further benchmark releases, regulatory scrutiny on high-risk AI systems, and any public beta or API rollout that meets the market’s qualifying criteria for a named or architecturally equivalent release.

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