What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
- ↓ 3.5%
- 100%
- —
- ↑ 4.25%
- 23%
- —
- ↓ 3.25%
- 10%
- +0.5
- ↑ 4.75%
- 4%
- −1.5
- ↓ 2.25%
- 4%
- —
- ↓ 0.75%
- 4%
- —
- ↓ 2.5%
- 4%
- —
- ↓ 1.5%
- 4%
- —
- ↓ 2.0%
- 3%
- —
- ↓ 1.0%
- 3%
- −0.7
- ↓ 0.25%
- 3%
- —
- ↑ 4.5%
- 3%
- −4.7
- ↑ 5.0%
- 3%
- —
- ↑ 5.5%
- 3%
- —
- ↑ 5.25%
- 3%
- —
- ↓ 1.75%
- 3%
- —
- ↓ 3.0%
- 3%
- —
- ↓ 0%
- 3%
- —
- ↓ 2.75%
- 3%
- —
- ↓ 0.5%
- 2%
- −0.8
- ↓ 1.25%
- 2%
- —
Traders currently price "↓ 3.5%" at 100% for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?". Full distribution: ↓ 3.5% 100%, ↑ 4.25% 23%, ↓ 3.25% 10%, ↑ 4.75% 4%. The market has traded $1.7M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% through its July 2026 meeting amid year-over-year CPI near 3.4% and solid economic expansion, with three FOMC members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike. Futures markets currently imply a modest upward drift toward roughly 3.8% by late 2026 and 4.1% by mid-2027, reflecting trader focus on inflation persistence and Middle East-related supply pressures rather than imminent easing. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC decision and upcoming CPI and employment releases, which will shape whether the upper bound reaches 4.25% or higher before year-end 2026. Market-implied odds embed the wisdom of crowds with real capital at risk, while acknowledging the possibility of data-driven shifts in either direction.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.