Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Traders currently price "Anthropic" at 86% for "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. The market has traded $281K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2027. Anthropic's June 2026 confidential S-1 filing with the SEC, followed by active banker outreach and investor meetings targeting an October debut, has driven trader consensus toward an 85.5% probability it reaches public markets first. The company behind the Claude large language model recently closed a major funding round at a $965 billion valuation and signaled flexibility on timing based on market conditions. In contrast, OpenAI, despite its own May filing and multibillion-dollar revenue run rate, has shifted toward a potential 2027 IPO after earlier Q4 2026 ambitions, citing internal priorities and complex tradeoffs of going public. This divergence in execution pace and recent reporting on OpenAI's delay forms the core driver behind current market-implied odds.

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