Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

Traders currently price "1560" at 45% for "Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: 1560 45%, 1580 30%, 1600 18%. The market has traded $183K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent releases from Anthropic and OpenAI continue to drive trader views on Coding Arena thresholds. Claude Opus 5, launched in July 2026, and GPT-5.6 Sol currently lead live coding arenas and agentic benchmarks such as SWE-Bench Verified and LiveCodeBench, with top scores reflecting strong performance on multi-file repository tasks. Competitive pressure from Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Alibaba’s Qwen variants has accelerated iteration cycles, while open-weight models close gaps on practical coding metrics. Key catalysts ahead include potential year-end model updates or capability jumps before December 31, 2026, which could push aggregate arena scores higher amid ongoing lab announcements and benchmark refreshes. Trader consensus reflects real capital at risk assessing these fast-moving technical trajectories.

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