Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

Traders currently price "Yes" at 98% for "Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?". The market has traded $170K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Apple's consistent annual cadence of flagship smartphone launches, typically in September, drives the 98% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Trader consensus reflects the company's established hardware roadmap, ongoing supply-chain preparations, and absence of any announced shifts despite rapid advances in artificial intelligence features and chip design. While this probability captures strong historical precedent, realistic disruptions could still emerge, such as unforeseen technical hurdles in new large language model capabilities, component shortages, or regulatory delays affecting certification and global availability.

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