Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Traders currently price "↑$900B" at 87% for "Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 10.0 points. Full distribution: ↑$900B 87%, ↑$1.0T 63%, ↓$800B 56%, ↓$750B 38%. The market has traded $990K in total volume and resolves Jan 1, 2027. OpenAI closed its March 2026 funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation on $122 billion in committed capital, reflecting roughly 40x forward revenue on an estimated $25 billion ARR. Trader sentiment for hitting higher thresholds by year-end centers on IPO timing and execution risk, with a confidential S-1 filed in May and initial plans for a potential 2026 debut now leaning toward mid-2027 amid capital needs and restructuring. Recent model releases and competitive pressure from Anthropic’s $965 billion round support revenue momentum, while projected 2026 GAAP losses near $33 billion and data-center spending underscore dilution and execution risks priced into private-market levels versus IPO targets near $1 trillion.

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